So I'm going to Europe and Dubai in about two weeks time and one of the people I'm going with said some economics buddy of hers said the AUD is predicted to fall to 48 cents in the next three weeks. Is this for real?

If so....would I be wise to buy some foreign currency now? Problem is I need pounds, Euros and Dirhams or whatever they use in Dubai (stopping there for about 4 days). I was thinking maybe buy some USD...obviously lose out on the extra conversion but not in the order of 30cents/dollar.

Or as most of the time will be in Euro countries should I just buy a bunch of Euros and either convert them or AUD to pounds/Dirham?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

/cue obes to say money speculation/trading is as bad as gambling

I need to buy something from the UK. I am dreading it as it is more than double in AUD what it is in GBP :(

I was going to hold off to see if it bounced back but, but I figure I would just bite the bullet. currency always fluctuates and I am sure in a years time I could go "Damn, if only I had waited a year it would be soooo much cheaper now"

I don't know about the AUD falls to 48 USD cents that's a bit excessive, high 50's low 60's maybe. Are you sure he's not talking about official interest rate being cut to that by 09? But yeah AUD isn't doing well at the moment and it doesn't look like it'll improve any time soon. But yes it's like gambling really to do it at your own risk.

i've just come back from the uk.. great time to do so.. but seriously.. if you're freaked out by what the currency is going to do then maybe you haven't got enough funds set aside or something.. Buy gold! or take barrels of oil with you

48 cents my ass
Even the drop in 1% interest rates our dollar will no lose half it's value. Our interest rates are still higher than in the US etc.
Our exports are still wanted etc

Edit: f***! 1AUD:70c US! Crazy!

last edited by Fireblood at 09:14:36 17/Oct/08

48c in the next 3 weeks? heh highly unlikely, but i suppose anything's possible.

I'm going to the US in December, and haven't had money exchanged yet... it's bad. I'm going with someone who works in foreign currency exchange, so I've been going on his advice... hmmm.

i've just come back from the uk.. great time to do so.. but seriously.. if you're freaked out by what the currency is going to do then maybe you haven't got enough funds set aside or something.. Buy gold! or take barrels of oil with you

I'm not freaked out but if it is going to drop by say 20cents...if I'm planning on spending $5000 then I could save $1000 by buying now...IMO worthwhile.

Perhaps an easier question is "is there any chance of the AUD rising significantly in the next 3 weeks"? My completely uneducated guess is there is no chance...meaning I'm not really risking anything by buying foreign currency now?

hey coochie are you going to richies thing tonight? can i bum a ride?

And sorry to keep throwing ou so many questions but all I know about currency is what I hear about AUD->USD....when AUD drops 20 cents to the USD does it have a roughly proportional drop to Euros and Pounds and others?

hey coochie are you going to richies thing tonight? can i bum a ride?

I'm getting a ride with Lizzy.

You up for a big one?

Is your email broken? Stop encouraging me to derail my own thread a******.

probably be pretty toasted before i get there, but i have a heap of s*** to do this weekend in preperation for my japan adventure. and dawso's on sat night, need to be compes mentus for that. are you pitching in for a present? (you should you cheap c***)

edit: on topic though, the dollar is f***ed and it makes me cry a little every day.

last edited by d0mino at 09:37:25 17/Oct/08

FX markets are always extremely volatile (not even taking into account the current craziness) so there's a good chance it could go either way. Here's a few factors that could influence it.

make AUD stronger (weaker):

commodity prices go up (down)
AUD interest rates go up (down) - rba meets on first tuesday of every month bar jan so there's 2 more meetings this year
US interest rates go down (up) - next fed meeting is at end of this month and another mid dec
AUS inflation falls (rises)
US inflation rises (falls)
AUS current account deficit decreases (increases)
US currenct account deficit increases (decreases)

and those are just a few main (economic) ones. political and other factors also come into it. trying to time the date you convert your currency is a form of speculation because you are currently exposed to movements either way in the exchange rate (that's neither a good nor bad thing - it's just a fact, it's up to your risk profile and how much risk you think is acceptable as to what you should do)

if you're really worried about AUD getting weaker give your bank a call and ask to be put through the the derivatives/FX desk and they can whip up a futures contract which will lock in todays FX rate for the amount you want to convert (edit: as long as it's a decent amount of money).

And sorry to keep throwing ou so many questions but all I know about currency is what I hear about AUD->USD....when AUD drops 20 cents to the USD does it have a roughly proportional drop to Euros and Pounds and others?

sometimes, but they don't necessarily have to move together.

last edited by taggs at 09:48:20 17/Oct/08

.when AUD drops 20 cents to the USD does it have a roughly proportional drop to Euros and Pounds and others?

I think "when" AUD ever drops to 20cents USD we'll all have a bigger things to worry about rather than planning your holiday overseas. But the answer is no, there it isn't proportionate drop generally.

as far as the average person is concerned they are proportional.

When the US dollar drops everyone else moves up roughly proportionally the same except for some minor local issues

.when AUD drops 20 cents to the USD does it have a roughly proportional drop to Euros and Pounds and others?


I think "when" AUD ever drops to 20cents USD we'll all have a bigger things to worry about rather than planning your holiday overseas.

I meant "drop by" not "drop to"...even with my little knowledge of economics I realise we'd be up the s***ter if it dropped to 20cents.

But the answer is no, there it isn't proportionate drop generally.

have we dropped significantly to Euro and or Pounds in the latest downturn (from .98 to .71 or whatever we're currently at)? I know I can figure out the current conversion rate but don't know where it was at and I don't know how to read historical graphs.

I was about to buy some wheels for my bike at $2k USD, im not sure if i should wait for it to go back up to the 80s or buy now before it drops even lower..

I just graphed last six months of euro- us, pound-us and aus-us and they pretty much move together

Http://www.Flickr.com/natslovr

I'm in a similar position Vash, but with Cargo racks for my Jeep.

I'm not that fussed about getting them now though, so I'm planning on holding off.

But the answer is no, there it isn't proportionate drop generally.

have we dropped significantly to Euro and or Pounds in the latest downturn (from .98 to .71 or whatever we're currently at)? I know I can figure out the current conversion rate but don't know where it was at and I don't know how to read historical graphs.

Yes recently we're getting smashed across all major currencies. Edit: Do you mean worst against EU than the US or ? But in any case nat's chart tells the story.

http://www.x-rates.com/

You can see the plot chart of AUD vs any major currencies there.

last edited by Opec at 12:22:11 17/Oct/08

Yeh, the AUD is getting raped by pretty much everyone. It has fallen by about 30% to the US$ and pretty much every asian currency and is down about 17% from the Pound and Euro, even the NZD is gaining on us.

lol at travelling in the next 12 months

lol at travelling

Our currency is almost directly linked to commodity prices. Commodities have been well over priced for the last 2 years so its not likely the dollar is going to grow anytime soon. There is no f***ing way its going to fall another 48c that is just stupid. I think the lowest it will get to in the next month is 0.63 but even that is unlikely. Due to volatility you could see a day in the next few weeks where the AUD comes back into some form but its not going to last more than a day and not happen during ozzie banking hours. Your best bet is to setup and AUD & USD, GBP or EURO account with an overseas bank and hang around during the night and trade it then.

I just want it nice and high when I purchase Left For Dead over steam, after that it can drop for a while.

I meant fall to 48c not fall another 48c....why is everyone misreading me!!?

As for waiting up all night for the next month to trade money I'd gladly sacrifice $1000 if it means I get to sleep in the next 720 hours.

set an alarm on your pc

and you really only need to watch the start and ends of the us trading day

so 11pm - 12pm and 6am to 7am

What about Daylight savings?

doesn't Natslovr's graph show the Euro and Pound have dropped the USD also? So wouldn't that mean AUD to Euro or Pound hasn't fallen so much?

lol at travelling

i guess you're a bit bitter that you have a couple of ball and chains stopping you from travelling these days huh

nah matey, ive always been anti travelling

spending thousands of dollars and having nothing to show for it:

thats not for me;

i prefer to spend thousands of dollars on a car and having nothing to show for it;

i travelled with my oldies, glad they paid for it and i didnt, else id be upset at all the wasted money;

is that;

right;

davey;

You can travel to some really beautiful places around Australia for pretty cheap.
You have memories and some awesome Photo's and stories to show for it.

You to do heaps of big camping trips with the olds when I was young, I do them with mates now and I hope to do them with my kids, down the line when I have kids that is.

f*** me, and it wasn't all that long ago when the dollar was at a crazy 97c per USD :/

I don't get it.

The price of oil per barrel has dropped quite substantially.
The AU has also dropped, although not as much percentage wise.

How come we are still paying high prices at the pump?

You to do heaps of big camping trips with the olds when I was young, I do them with mates now and I hope to do them with my kids, down the line when I have kids that is.

if

I'm coming home in a few weeks time for a holiday. Sent some pounds back last week in preparation - think I ended up getting $2.50 to the pound, which I was pretty chuffed with. Will be looking forward to doing some damage with that wad of cash. On a side note - what are the best places to go out in Brisbane at the moment. The Vic is still popular right?

The Vic is still popular right?

haha whatever. When are you there? If I'm back then we should hit the RE!@#

As for waiting up all night for the next month to trade money I'd gladly sacrifice $1000 if it means I get to sleep in the next 720 hours.

if you're that worried about the exchange rate risk, just have it hedged. Call your bank's FX/derivatives desk.

haha yeh good idea, let your bank convert it you moron

^ retard alert

Hey, if you want to piss your money up a wall go for it! I guess it makes f*** all difference on travel money. So I apologise, sorry taggs! go change your money at an aussie bank

What's wrong with changing money at Aussie banks? I thought they actually generally had competitive charges against your Travellex and whatevers?

Travelex maybe but most straight conversions at your bank will be inflated by 2 - 2.5% and their deals on futures is terrible. There is plenty of places around that will do it a lot cheaper especially if your buying a declining currency. That's why if you have a big trip planned that you have been saving for a while for it can be better to use these services as you need the currency regardless of its current weight.

There is some very good online brokers and traders now who are able to do it much cheaper than any aussie banks anyway due to much lower overheads.

oh and be aware of the extra fee's they will lump on top if you stick your aussie atm card into an international ATM, especially if its on a different switching network. Just look at the back of your card it will tell you what networks it natively runs on.

oh and be aware of the extra fee's they will lump on top if you stick your aussie atm card into an international ATM, especially if its on a different switching network. Just look at the back of your card it will tell you what networks it natively runs on.

I've got Cirrus cards and I'm getting stung around AUD$5 per transaction at the moment even from cirrus ATMs. So i'm trying to get as much cash as possible in short bursts - although I haven't got any for almost 2 weeks now which was about when the dollar started seriously tanking SAD FACE

you could open a euro account and just convert a whole batch, if you're staying a while longer? i dunno what the legal requirements are... just a thought.

Yeh I thought about that. Actually when I was in the US a few months ago for E3 I thought I'd do that with a US bank account. It took f***ing ages because the guy was a bit of a moron and by the time it was finished I could only put in like $200 - then I ran out of time later to put more money in. This was when the dollar was f***ing caining too, so I'm f***ing pissed that I went to all the trouble for only $200 US.

You can also buy say 20k of currency and pay for 5k of it, and then just pull down the rest as you need it. As long as you complete the order there is no penalty's.

LOL AUD crash.

Looks like I'll be having a merry little xmas when I visit Cairns in December.. :D

god damn it i have to change around 5k into GBP in 2 months

come on come good!

buy euro now. euro just keeps getting stronger and stronger.

god damn it i have to change around 5k into GBP in 2 months

come on come good!

I just changed 5k pound into aud :D

euro's are win

bit of a bump

i see the pound has climbed from .38 up to .43

anyone been following it in the last week?

few people look silly cliaming there was no way we would drop to 60c.

$ value is not a product of a strong economy. We're in a much better state than the US who have a trillion $ budget deficit and negative growth predicted for 2009, but the demand for the US $ due to foreign investors picking up bargains is driving the value up relative to the AU $

bit of a bump

i see the pound has climbed from .38 up to .43

anyone been following it in the last week?

i have been a little, its picked up against the euro quite a bit which is good news for me

An AUD = .40 USD is 'good news'

Call me then, I have some more phat lewt to send home. :D

There are a lot more Australians in Australia that want to travel to the US than Australians living in the US that want to send money home. So STFU Creepy and others that work there.

I don't really buy much from overseas and never go overseas so the cheap fuel (relatively) is sweet!

Nub here - but isn't a weak dollar exactly what we want at the moment, making our exports godly and - maybe - buffering us against falling demand for commodities and resources, also increasing our appeal for tourism?

(At the cost of expensive video cards, BMWs and plasma TVs)

It encourages people to buy locally produced products instead of hitting up Amazon.com.

This is nothing but a Good Thing™ ultimately.

there is no perfect exchange rate. the beauty of a floating currency is that it fluctuates with the health of a country's economy. so when the economy is weakened, our exports are cheaper to buy thus stimulating more trade from outside and dampening demand for imports, and when our economy is powering ahead the exports become dearer slowing down demand. isn't it beautiful?

It's great infi, good thing Paul Keating had a chance to float it before JH got in...

good thing Liberals voted for it when it was proposed too, unlike Labor and the GST.

If they priced things here reasonably I would buy them here.

Motorcycle gear and ice hockey gear are 2 things that are insanely inflated in aus that I have had the experience of buying.

Saved a massive wad of cash buying my gear overseas and having it shipped here.

I know my bro eK has bought tons of drum related stuff from the US as well when the dollar was stronger... often for less than half retail price here and that includes the international shipping!

last edited by rubba-chikin at 11:56:05 06/Nov/08

good thing Liberals voted for it when it was proposed too, unlike Labor and the GST.

Poor infi so partisan ... so crazy

Lets shoot them

excuse me I was pointing out the bipartisanship.

good thing Liberals voted for it when it was proposed too, unlike Labor and the GST.

Like shooting liberals.. er fish, in a barrel.

You were pointing out the exception to prove the rule... and you know it.