ok this is a new stocks thread. US indices are getting MCFKNSLAMMED. ASX200 is slowly (finally) selling off H4RDCOREZ. Nikkei is getting absolutely SMOTE. Crude prices looking very peaky (lol supaspike the SACHSboyz), yellow, lumpy metal consolidating.

I think the big question is does the US slowdown = lower crude prices or has the 'peak' hoax fooled even the big guys?

QGL ECOTOURISTS REPRESENT.



ps this post may or may not be loaded with fear, uncertainty and doubt. glhf

this was predicted pretty much all over the place for the past week or more

MCFKNSLAMMED H4RDCOREZ SMOTE supaspike SACHSboyz

Sorry, what?

We're here! We're clear! We don't want anymore bears!

Sorry, what?

lol phar.

ps wasup maen

I don't get it...the bears shot 2 lasers out of their eyes but only 1 arrived at a time..

it is too late to sell. just hold on for the bottom and then dollar cost average in.

f*** MBL is f***en 66 and BNB is 21, and they will go lower.

SUN is 15.77 and is presently yielding 7.5%!

the only problem is that, this is based on current profit forecasts. when they revise their profit forecasts due to the US the whole equation collapses and aqll stocks must be revlaued because profits being driven by US consumption have tanked.

No one will be spared by the coming depression. It is inevitable and the US bankrupt.

Cash is king at the moment. If you invest in stocks right now you deserve evertything you have coming to you.

I... I have no idea what language you're speaking, Rolo. Unfortunately neither does Babelfish, so I'll have to wait on a translation before I can comment.

Oil is a finite resource = gg USA

Cash is king at the moment.

Actually, Gold appears to be the new black...

old mate at work has borrowed 400grand to buy shares right now (well, in the next week or so)

ballsy

what are bears, is this thread about american football gambling?

Gold appears to be the new black...

It's rally is almost over, I predict it dropping to $800 in the short term.

sorry what have I missed, we had this discussion back in november.. I thought the general consensus was the sub prime issue would take 6-12 months to shake out. seems to have played out that way with deposits with banks at record highs in november.

the next big thing will be when our banks have to declare exactly how much they lost 'investing' in crazily-risky debt.

the only problem is that the entire monetary system as we know it is flawed. financial expansion only really occurs when banks lend money to people (because they are at this point creating money out of thin air through the fractional reserve system).

so when confidence in the banking system and market in general depresses, people stop borrowing or borrow less at higher rates. as a result, less money (paper) is in circulation and all prices everywhere must drop.

the depression is created, and no matter how low interest rates go, if no one borrows the economy must shrink.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2105/2198239773_922f3d59b1_o.png

this image represents the dow jones average converted against the gold price and commodities prices for the same time. as you can see if everything was measured in gold, the dow jones has actually been in decline since 2000.

creating money out of thin air through the fractional reserve system

holy s*** dude, you sound like you actually know what you are talking about. props

but really sorry bout the panic had a massive lunch yesterday. I suppose a big sell-off is long overdue. way to much fkn spec activity in the last eighteen months. people should have realised months ago when big hedge funds were getting smoked. it seems like everyday somebodys harping on about their share portfolio. OOO FKN ELL I LOST A HUNDRED K TODAY. irony is half the peasants made their money from real estate and are now getting robbed in equities f***ING LOL c***S. f*** it sweep the trenches clean ill still be here.

bank of china having to write off even more in 4th quarter. speculation is the 45 billion it made in net profit over the first 3 quarters won't cover the loss. they'll be sitting on this announcement till april: http://news.smh.com.au/bank-of-china-to-take-hit-on-us-subprime/20080121-1n5p.html

can't wait till our banks have to come clean and fess up about their gambling on dodgy debt.

the asx has now fallen through the long-term grand-supercycle support line. there is now no limit to how low it can go.

zug zug

if anyone knows anything about shortin shares put it to good use making a qazillion pesos

now my crazy talk about a depression a few weeks ago doesnt sound so crazy now does it

o and also as i said a few months back.. forget gold and shizzle

eu aaa bonds are where its at

So any predicitions on when the stock prices are going to bottom out and whats going to be the best stocks to buy then.

i think it will be some time yet. just watch every day. a good guide will be when the asx breaks its 30 day moving average on the way up.

check out the da vinci code shad

it does have some tips, but i was trying to keep that for myself jim ya clown.

Thankyou Jim, pm me more of your stock tips so people on here can't see it.

asx is down 200+ at the open. european markets were down 7% overnight. holy crappola. ALL MY f***EN TRADING SITES ARE OVERLOADED AND I CAN'T GET QUOTES RAWR

Oh :/

my super, its all gone

HOW WILL I EVER RETIRE NOW!?!?!?!?!?

Well the US market was closed overnight for the Martin Luther King holiday but futures trading was open. If that's anything to go by it could be a bloodbath when the markets open tonight.

CNN article

Its Official: the bears are in control

We are? Cool! Somebody get me a coffee then!

God I'm an idiot, started to average back in yesterday. While averaging back in is a good strategy I really should have had a bit more patience because everything in my intuition tells me that there's at least a couple more weeks of downward momentum to come (though obviously not at this sort of rate). Currently down $1000 (or about 15%) on purchases made a day ago.

Thank god I don't have to sell.

http://www.hudson-institute.com/images/membership/cycle_450x450.gif

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/economic_cycle(matt_blackman).jpg

Well of course it's a cycle, it's picking when the cycle has adjusted that's the challenge.

Of course the solution is to buy quality stocks at decent prices, following that advice is the challenge.

I watch a lot of news and read the internet, I know the stock market a******s in the USA aren't raking in as much money atm or something, but I gotta say ... what the f*** is a bear? And how do you buy these stocks? Is there a website where you can paypal?

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends#Bear_market

A bear market is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history was 1930 to 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression. A milder, low-level long-term bear market occurred from about 1967 to 1983, encompassing the stagflation economy, energy crises in the 1970s, and high unemployment in the early 1980s.

You can buy stocks just by visiting a stock broker.

I thought he meant Russia was now in control or something.

ok thanks creepy. Stock broker? I'd rather not have to go through someone who takes a fee and requires my physical presence to sign documents. Where is the website the broker buys the stock from?

i think it means that idol is just very very bad at reading

you can paypal your money to me and i'll buy all the socks you want commission free.

now my crazy talk about a depression a few weeks ago doesnt sound so crazy now does it

your claim that current economic conditions haven't been worse since the great depression is still crazy, a depression is pretty damn unlikely.

falling stock markets =/= depression. a recession is likely but anyone who can read knows that.

edit: read these for a little perspective:
Same as it ever was - Economist.com
“Is the 2007 Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

infi, how can you be so financially educated and be a wave theorist =/

last edited by taggs at 16:56:41 22/Jan/08

If everyone's losing money where's it all going!? :D \{o.O)/

stock up on baked beans and long life milk kids

also .. please dont avg in.. its a well known successful way to fail

dont try to pick bottoms either - trade the trend, look for high performing solid stocks with business that is fundamentally sound and paying a return - these are the stocks people will flock back too

you cant have a depression without a recession

also i think you underestimate how really stupid the US president is and how he has lead the world to this point. this is something i have been predicting for about 6 years now, and a correction/recession might not be enough to fix 8+ years of fiscal grabass that was played out by the US to hide there economic failures.

everytime i heard greenspan yibba yabba what his masters wanted i almost cried. the global solution was nearly masterfully fixed by OPEC however there solution also looks like it has failed. however the high oil prices could be the 1 difference between what could have been a bad depression and what will most likely be a bad recession. if there was a saviour over the last 5 years who has been working to save us from this recession it will have been opec, my hats off to them

this isnt a problem that was formed last week in the papers.. the global economy is fundamentally is in very bad shape..

it needs a whole lot of leeches to suck the dirty blood out of the economy and theres alot of sickness that needs to be bled out

only time will tell, but i'm sure this will be a doosey

just hold on for the bottom and then dollar cost average in

DUMB.

God I'm an idiot, started to average back in yesterday

DUMBERER.

Superform beat me but jesus christ please dont ever confirm your noobness by telling people to do this infi. epic fail.

where is the bottom? only the market knows those prices dont kid yourself, and others.

asx breaks its 30 day moving average on the way up

u sound like peter pontikis. a real pro lol
TRIPLE FAIL.

so, who of the qgl traders has lost their shirt?

Am I the only one who giggles when they say that the Germany's Dax are down? Really cracks me up when they say it.

A bear market is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism.

Yeah i thought the thread was about the world going to hell or something... now i know it's actually alluding to a market term.

WD on thread topic then. Very subtle.

qgl traders has lost their shirt?

Shad lost his pants... but that wasn't because he lost money.

Or the stock market.

Or even involuntary.

you cant have a depression without a recession

really?...

also i think you underestimate how really stupid the US president is and how he has lead the world to this point. this is something i have been predicting for about 6 years now, and a correction/recession might not be enough to fix 8+ years of fiscal grabass that was played out by the US to hide there economic failures.

i don't disagree things aren't in good shape, but I think you underestimate the US's ability to repay their debt. with a fiscally literate democratic president coming up this year things will pick up. there'll be a recession no doubt, hopefully a soft landing unless some more shennanigans happen but your doomsday predictions of depressions and conditions as bad as the Great Depression are pretty sensationalist.

oh and yeah we know you're a pro trader who knows and predicts everything. you should probably be head of the fed imo.

everytime i heard greenspan yibba yabba what his masters wanted i almost cried. the global solution was nearly masterfully fixed by OPEC however there solution also looks like it has failed. however the high oil prices could be the 1 difference between what could have been a bad depression and what will most likely be a bad recession. if there was a saviour over the last 5 years who has been working to save us from this recession it will have been opec, my hats off to them

f***, you totally should run the fed! but thanking OPEC for high oil prices? that's due to supply contraints not due to any serious conscious choice on their part...

this isnt a problem that was formed last week in the papers..

seriously?

only time will tell, but i'm sure this will be a doosey

just for the record are you saying it's going to be a depression or recession?

The whole reason I got the Internet is so I could buy shares without a stock broker... in 1995 that's what everyone was saying the Internet would provide... $$$$ it's not 1995 anymore, where are my f***ing riches?

Today was the first time i heard a talking head say that this downturn may lead to a depression. He was European.

good luck getting quotes for anything atm. some markets are suspended. limit down NO UPTIX 4 U thank u MARTIN LUTHER.

tragic
all i can say is that stocks are gay

and don't even mention commsec's website

only effects all the bums leveraged to invest - anyone else in it for the long term with half a brain cell can just sit and wait.

Unfortunately I'm a bum x 2 and have had a couple of margin calls this week, but I just ponied up and put in the cash - no way am I selling anything!

serious question. i don't understand why people don't sell. What is the advantage in travelling to the bottom? Why not pull out and sit your money at 7%. Pickup call options on the big stocks. What's it work out as... another 1% in 'insurance' on the 24% you've lost since November highs, whoop-d-doo.

So today you are down 25% but now earning 7%PA and if the market magically recovers in the next 90 days you are covered by your cheap options.

Because some people still have serious CGT gains to think about and selling out would make them lose considerably more money by having to pay CGT.

big call spidz its the margin calls which will break people - thanks for helping pay for the recovery though btw

taggs... when you say really?... to my comment about not having a depression without a recession what are you talking about..

it sounds like you spent too much time playing grab ass with the uni bois and not enough time studying

a recession is 2+ quarters of negitive growth a depression is a prolonged recession usually 12 months or 4 quarters of negitive growth

like i said.. you cant have a depression without a recession.. i dont understand that your contradicting this point...

imo opec restricted supply to increase oil prices as this was the only way to squeeze money out of the general population and force the credit spree to slow and reverse. this is the single factor that i can see that may be the saving point of the global economy.

we have been paying for this recession through oil prices for a few years now.. if production had been ramped up and oil prices kept low we would certianly have been in a recession allready and be in the middle of facing a depression

for the record i'm saying this will be a recession that will be touch and go on the verge of a depression.. it would depend on how well the US can recover and if there new leader can boost international confidence and if the credit crunch isnt too severe.

anyway i dont know y ur so angsty towards me.. seems a bit juvanile to me

i think your sarcasm detector is broken, i said really because you were pointing out the obvious as if it weren't just that - blatently obvious... but thanks for the econ101 lesson.

in your opinion OPEC has been constraining supply? why is practically every refinery in the world at full capacity then? production is being ramped up, right across the globe. it takes quite a bit of time to drill/build that s***.

angsty? heh, ok.

last edited by taggs at 23:04:20 22/Jan/08

f***ing Opec whatta c***

Averaging in is an incredibly good strategy. doing it when the market is this volatile is pretty brave/stupid though so while I think you're an idiot rolo to call averaging in stupid I agree that in this instance i was rather dumb.

TRIPLE FAIL.

Dude I'm the guy who posted on here in July that the ASX was headed to 5000.

Re wave theory, it's the only thing that works. Why else would a stock making the same profits, one day be worth 20% less the day after? Because of the herd. People travel in herds like animals. The stock market is the ultimate herd.

Fundamentals have nothing to do with share prices. It is all about sentiment. That's why I had no serious holdings and all my margin lending was closed down by November.

If I'm a noob, well I'm a noob who ignored my broker's advice and is now NOT in the hole. :P :P :P

so over all, november was a good month for you then?

it was so so. how was yours?

Fundamentals have nothing to do with share prices

True

A share's price has nothing to with a share's value. A share's price is what people will pay.

I look at it this way.

I am not leveraged for my shares, I have the same number of shares I did a week ago. Now when I get my dividends (and I will still be getting good dividends) I will in fact be getting more shares then I was a week ago. So when they correct (because the fundamentals are still good) my holdings will actually be better off for this cycle/wave/bear/plumit/crash/bloodbath.

My pipe dream is ...
It also might cause the real estate market to burp as people leveraged off property into shares/funds get hit by margin calls, or going back into mortgages to cover calls. That combined with upcoming interesting times for people with loans from non-bank institutions... I might get a cheap house at the bottom of the cycle ... yeah I know ... tell him he's dreaming.

i don't disagree things aren't in good shape, but I think you underestimate the US's ability to repay their debt. with a fiscally literate democratic president coming up this year things will pick up.

And I think you overestimate the Dems chances in this upcoming election.

If it comes down to a Clinton (D) vs McCain (R) race (which it's definitely looking like), I wouldn't be surprised if McCain won.

In any event, while any political change might trigger some small, immediate relief...there's a long hard road still to travel yet.

infi i totally agree about the prices vs. herd sentiment, i just don't understand how you think wave theory can predict said herd sentiment.

it's the same as most 'techincal' analysis, it's easy to fit the theory into market historical movements because it's so subjective and the 'rules' are so loosely defined but its predicting power is questionable.

edit re: US election: i dunno, the race is still wide open at the moment - won't really know who's looking like winning until after super tuesday. there's only been a couple of primaries so far.

and i don't think the republicans chances are as strong as you say, each of their major candidates appeal to different sections of the party. McCain to defense/nation security hawks, Romney to big business and Huckabee to evangelical christians. for one of them to have any serious chance at the presidency they're going to have to broaden their appeal which I haven't seen any of them do effectively yet.

last edited by taggs at 10:30:00 23/Jan/08

and we are stil yet to see if guliani (sp) is in with shot.

an american talking head on cnn was saying some people use market dips like this to buy bargains, and went on to say that if you bought during the tech stock dip of 2000 you still haven't made your money back nearly 8 years later.

the 'rules' are so loosely defined but its predicting power is questionable.

no method will give you the exact day the market is going to fall, but when all the bells are ringing and the lights are flashing, those are pretty strong signals that it is due any time now.

edit: japan hit 38,000 many years ago and is still now languishing around 18,000 today.

and we are stil yet to see if guliani (sp) is in with shot

This comment may come back to bite me if I'm wrong, but stick a fork in him, he's done. After sitting out of the early states and concentrating on Florida he's dropped off the national radar and is even dipping in Florida. Anything short of a landslide in Florida will take him from favorite to footnote.

for one of them to have any serious chance at the presidency they're going to have to broaden their appeal which I haven't seen any of them do effectively yet

McCain has a history of bipartisanship on his side and as a Western state Republican (or 'liberal Republican') he'll have the most broad appeal. I think his biggest hurdle is winning over the party's conservative base during the primary season. I think he'd be a very good chance of beating Clinton (given the polarisation of views towards her), I'm not sure how he'd go up against Obama.

i agree, ghouliani's done for.

you're probably right about McCain though once the primaries are over and it's back to red vs. blue McCain's very vocal support of Bush, the war and the surge may come back to bite him in the ass. he really needs to distance himself from that imo.

edit:

a recession is 2+ quarters of negitive growth a depression is a prolonged recession usually 12 months or 4 quarters of negitive growth

yeah, that's the most commonly used method of identifying a recession (the 2 quarters of - real GDP growth) - your definition of a depression is interesting. I've never seen, read or heard of anyone identifying a depression as 12 months of negative GDP growth. a depression is always said to be a severe or prolonged recession and by general consensus we've never seen one since the great depression.

though we have seen 2 recessions in the US that lasted longer than 12 months, one in the mid 70s and one in the 80s. i think your definition of a depression is wrong.



last edited by taggs at 13:13:49 23/Jan/08

Yeah, that's what any Republican needs to work on as soon as they have enough delegates to win the party's nomination. However if Super Tuesday doesn't sort the field out, the nominating process will drag out and take valuable time from the candidate to distance himself from Bush and set his own platform of issues. To an extent the Democrats can afford a long battle between Clinton and Obama, on the their side the Republicans can't.

I love all the racism and sexism that is showing up in the democrat party's supporters.

'as an african american woman I am unsure who to vote for'.. how f***ing racist and sexist is that? why would you give such a bigot a voice in your party? you vote for the person you think will do the best job, not the asian tranny because you are asian and in to chicks with dicks. the left is good at mainstreaming discrimination and pretending it is all ok. this primary season has shown them up as the small minded people they are.

the republicans promote women and blacks to upper echelons of power and the democrats sn*****, question sexuality and make snide racist remarks.

then u get hispanic and asian democrats saying they don't trust the blacks... but it's phrased as 'distrust between our communities'... it's beautiful.

i wish there was a real senator david palmer. he would pwn as US president.

so, uh, is now the time to buy or what

no way Jose.

you may get a small bounce at the moment. i am just nervous that the asx's rise today is a dead cat bounce when you compare that the Dow still fell last night (why would the ASX contradict this??)

it depends on your risk profile. more conservative investors may wait for the mood to change back again, and less volatility. there are definitely some bargains out there.

BHP at 33 - buy
ZFX at 9 - buy (high risk)

Any of the mainstream banks would be worth looking at. (ANZ, WBC, SUN, BNB, MQG).

The safest bet would be to take small positions and accumulate slowly imo

last edited by infi at 15:12:04 23/Jan/08

nats, calling the democrats the "left" is a fairly big call.

ok then. which party are members of the loonie left most likely to vote for in a two party presidential race.....?

what about move-on.org's?

what about kos kids?

The safest bet would be to take small positions and accumulate slowly imo

I am not interested in managing my own share portfolio - I am looking at indexed funds, primarily international (hedged) and Australian. From the tiny tiny tiny amount that I know now isn't a bad time to be getting into either

yeah i'd hold off on those for a month or so and see what happens trog.

you know buying yesterday and selling today would have been good advice.

this thread has failed.

but there's some serious playas in here

If you don't manage our own share portfolio you will get rorted one way or another, better to lose your money yourself imo.

bazza says:

sharemarket is too risky. just sell or your shares and bet on federer. you know he can't lose. if you want to diversify your portfolio bet half on federer winning 3-0.

watch for the dead cat bounce

If you don't manage our own share portfolio you will get rorted one way or another, better to lose your money yourself imo.

what a load of s*** and yor an idiot

last edited by Spook at 07:17:09 24/Jan/08

you know buying yesterday and selling today would have been good advice.

and if you converted to cash at the bottom of the worse day in november you'd still be up somewhere around 18% to 20%.

It's nice they dropped US interest rates by 0.75%. But if they dropped them to 0% it still wouldn't help people that shouldn't have been given loans to repay them. It doesn't fix the underlying problem, there is still all that bad debt out there, interest rate drops are just to appease the gamblers.

The other thing with betting during the dips, especially this one, is while the P/E's look good, that requires you to believe the E. If you think companies aren't going to spend the next 12 months "adjusting" earnings expectations downwards, go ahead, buy buy buy. It's not off, it's just being sold for cheap because people are more stupid than you. BUY!

except BHP announced they will meet all demand due to ramped up production with an increase in earnings expected.. 8,8 bil was the figure off the top off my head

could be a golden time .. if you guys had listened to me when i said buy bhp below 32 in nov...and keep tight stops over the last week or 2 then you would be set to make a double wammy 50%+ bonanza

not bad considering the shape of the global economy

ps i did buy yesterday bhp and held looking to sell this morning.. which is y i'm awake at midnight nl time

i do have a tight stop though and i dont recommend trading though this unless you know what your doing or have advise from a professional

BHP HAVE MY BABIES KTHNX

bed time

This stage of the cycle you are probably better looking at staples rather then resources.... surely ?

resources are going to be solid for at least another 5 years. BHP is debt free and has so much cash it doesn't know what to do with it.

I'll take some..

they give it out in little bits twice a year. they're called dividends.

bah!