Bookies have the Coalitionas longshots at $4.30 to win.

That's pretty good money. I mean its pretty much a 50-50 chance of them winning.

Once again, Obes is proclaiming his guessing is more accurate than studies by professionals.

That's pretty good money. I mean its pretty much a 50-50 chance of them winning.

u reckon?

i think its going to be closer than most of the polls say, but labor will still get up (sorry infi, but you know its true)

I think honestly that everyone is going to be suprised... I really thing the Libs will get home, maybe only just, but I think they will.

Interesting that the Galaxy poll should come out this morning and show them at 48% v 52%. I don't think thats anything like election winning for Labor.

I'm becoming a citizen of England if Krudd is PM I think, I won't be able to stand it.

Once again, Obes is proclaiming his guessing is more accurate than studies by professionals.

Really ?

Galaxy found that the Coalition had matched Labor's national primary vote - 42.5 per cent to 42.5 per cent.

News poll ...

Coalition 46% (1621 votes)
Labor 46% (1627 votes)
Other 6% (220 votes)
Total votes Total of 3468 votes

Labor has to win 16 new seats to form government, and not lose any.
For it to happen you are talking about Howard and Turnbull losing their seats.

Until recently I thought liberal was going to s*** it in; all the polls are making me question that, except of course I don't believe polls

Galaxy poll - Even
Nielsen poll - Labor landslide
Morgan poll - Somewhere between

The experts can't come close to coming to a consesus it would seem. But really the national swing doesn't matter, what counts is the swing in marginal Coalition seats. Labor needs to do a lot to pick up 16 seats so I expect it to be close.

the poll numbers haven't changed because people are sick of answering their home phone to telemarketers (i only plug mine in when I need a 1300 number). there's no longer the cross section of the community there once was.. and telstra has blocked reable reverse directories so they are using old data anyway.

the media doing such a s***ty job hasn't helped either.

i'm looking forward to the outcome tomorrow.

I think honestly that everyone is going to be suprised... I really thing the Libs will get home, maybe only just, but I think they will.

Put some money on it then. Odds are now $4.50 for Libs.

last edited by Zaphod at 12:00:18 23/Nov/07

Yeah those news polls and s*** are pretty much unreliable. The only poll that count is tomorrow.

what about the poll i gave your mum last night?

HAHA

i think it was 1998, labor one 51% of the vote (on preferences) and yet lost 5 seats. it'll be a tight one don't doubt it.

gold d0mino

Might put $20 on the Libs - IMO those are very good odds.

If i was going to lay odds for the Libs to someone else, i wouldn' offer more than 2.5-1

BTW does anyone know a decent site to bet on for this? CBF using betfair.

http://www.centrebet.com/

If labor fail yet again, there is going to be some crazy imploding.

$23 bet = $100 my way if the libs win

I think smart people will be voting Johnny, but dunno how many smart people we got in Aus... Either side is full of bulls*** and corrpupt so it won't matter which way, but I wouldn't mind a change.. see how it goes...

I've shown the howshouldivote site to several people. I was surprised that every one of them had questions about the que
tions. they do not know what the main issues promoted this campaign were about.

from comments like 'i hate work choices' to 'we need a recession so I can find staff to hire', 'cheap childcare will just mean more lazy single mums' and me having to explain the private healthcare rebate.

these same people will be voting tomorrow.

Yeah nats, i think a shockingly large percantage of voters actually have no idea what each party is bringing to the table (apart from the heavily publiscied stuff like education rebates, tax rates etc), and merely vote based on "liking" one leader over the other.

I think smart people will be voting Johnny

No, it just comes down to the lesser of two evils.

Most people see a vote for Rudd as a vote against Costello.

i can tell you now that all polling, scientific and and anecdotal, internal and public has been gyrating all over the place for the last 6 weeks. there is no reliable measurement.

a poll of 8000 people on channel 10 last night reportedly saw a result of 65% liberal.

despite my own biases, i believe it will be VERY close, but i believe the government will be retained as the undecided voters err on the side of caution. (this is up to 18% of the total).

i am totally prepared for a coalition loss though - it's that close.

ps i have $150 on the coalition to win.

last edited by infi at 19:03:24 23/Nov/07

odds are down to 3:1

I've heard alot of people day they were going to vote Labor specifically because they hate Costello (Not Howard.)

To me it seems like he's a very Smug guy that smirks alot, but he's done a pretty good budget (from what I gather) and he hasn't really done anything that sets him apart from any other pollly...
Now I dont claim to pay that close attention to politics 100% of the time, but what has Costello done wrong?

run the economy well?

how can the owner of a multi million doller business seriously callhimself a labour leader?

ffs we got 2 x librial parties atm both are f***ed

'labor' or libral ether way we all lose

When was the last time the Liberal Party won enough seats in the Federal Upper House to form a Government?

governments are formed in the lower house...

$200 dollars on Richards!

Ooops yeh, Lower House is legislature, Upper House is review (sigh). Have a problem lately with noun substitution and language; I mean one thing and say / write another if I'm not careful. Its getting annoying.

I think there's something wrong with my brain ...

Anyway infi, did the Libs win enough seats last election (biggest Coalition victory in ages) to form a Government independent of the Nationals? I know they've been eating into the Nats share of the Coalition in recent years.